We elaborated a first habitat suitability model in Maxent for the whole species using all data available, the predictions of this model performed fairly well. However, there were several records placed out of the altitudinal range of this species. Thus, we repeated the modelling exercise using just those records extending to a maximum of 500 m the known elevational range of the species (800-3,000 m). Among the inaccurate records there were three accessions from the Western Foundation of Vertebrate Zoology, from which we know all data is corrupted in BioMap and cannot be used. other records were inaccurately placed. New results restricted slightly more the distribution of this guan in the mountain ranges of Colombia, although they were similar to those obtained previously. Both models predicted as suitable in climatic terms the serrania del Baudo and a few areas in the extreme SEe. Particularly, the areas in Baudo are interesting because of its geographic closeness to the Western Andes. However, these areas and those in the far SEe were trimmed from the final potential distribution maps of the species.
There is one record from Dagua (Valle del Cauca) in BioMap that have been identified erroneously as the subspecies sanctaemarthae and must be the nominate subspecies; this needs correction. Collected in 1907, possibly it was not reidentified when the subspecies sanctaemarthae was described. Similarly, there was another record from El Retiro (Antioquia) misidentified as the subspecies tschudii. This record was changed in the databases and reidentified to the nominate subspecies by distribution.
Distribution of specimens, according to BioMap, suggests a possible narrow area (≈ 833 km2) of intergradation between subspecies fagani and goudotii in central Cauca to sourthern Valle del Cauca. Most specimens in this area have been collected well after the description of both subspecies involved and we believe it is unlikely they are erroneously identified. On the other hand, its is not clear how far north goes the distribution of the subspecies tschudii in Colombia. Its limit must be between the furthest record to the north (Sibundoy, Putumayo) and the limit assigned in its distribution map in this study.
Assuming that the distribution of the species may have filled the complete climatic model generated, its distribution today in remnants of forest is about 97,870 km2, which corresponds to a loss of 59 % of its potential original distribution due to deforestation.
McMullan & Donegan (2014) have suggested the populations from the Eastern Andes may constitute one or two undescribed subspecies; this needs further research.
Regularized training gain is 1.678, training AUC is 0.952, unregularized training gain is 2.001.
Algorithm terminated after 2000 iterations (70 seconds).
The follow settings were used during the run:
149 presence records used for training.
10147 points used to determine the Maxent distribution (background points and presence points).
Environmental layers used (all continuous): bio10co bio11co bio12co bio13co bio14co bio15co bio16co bio17co bio18co bio19co bio1co bio2co bio3co bio4co bio5co bio6co bio7co bio8co bio9co
Regularization values: linear/quadratic/product: 0.050, categorical: 0.250, threshold: 1.000, hinge: 0.500
Feature types used: product linear quadratic hinge threshold
'Equal Training Sensitivity and Specificity' and 'Equate Entropy of Thresholded and Original Distributions' thresholds and omission rates:
0.108-0.187-Fractional predicted area
0.107-0.04-Training omission rate